Ethiopia: An Analysis of Democracy
After a decade of bloody civil war in Ethiopia, a sudden turn occurred in May 1991, culminating in the ousting of the Marxist leader Mengistu Haile Mariam and his military junta. Rebel forces, mainly originating from the Tigray and Eritrean regions, have successfully taken over the capital of Addis Ababa and taken Mengistu out of power. The victory brought a new promise for free and open elections, the guarantee of human rights, and freedom of the press, which has not been done in Ethiopian history (Engedayehu, 1993). While thirty years have passed since the faithful event, this article will analyze how democracy has been institutionalized and consolidated in the country, most notably in the circumstances leading up to the ongoing Tigray War, including its historical implications that may have caused the occurring conflicts in the country, and investigate the existing issues that may undermine the process.
There is still a continuing debate on what classifies a proper understanding of democracy. While focusing on the procedural aspect of democracy tends to be a common denominator, many other essential elements may not be considered. In such circumstances, it would be best to view democracy as the collectively binding decision-making process in any form of group or collective in which all its members have control over it and are considered equals. The definition of consolidation in itself is no less of a debate itself. There are two best ways to identify a consolidation, the first being the existence of a peaceful transition of power between one faction to the next, complete with the acceptance of the outcome from the losing faction. The second identification can be taken from the system’s longevity, examining the unbroken continuation of the democratic process. From this understanding, the consolidation of democracy can be best identified when an adequate number of reasons to believe that a democracy in a particular collective can withstand pressures or shocks without abandoning the electoral process or political freedoms upon which it stands (Beetham, 1994).
In an analysis by Beetham (1994), at least ten different hypotheses could be attributed to a consolidation of democracy. Such conditions include the transitional process towards democracy, the economic system that has become dominant in the country, the community’s political culture, and the existence of political institutions that may help create sustainable democracy. Although these indicators individually may not be sufficient to be identified as a form of democratic consolidation, an accumulation of these facilitating indicators can be expected to increase the survivability of elective democracy further. Therefore, this article will be examining on several elements, including the political transition process, cultural division, the existence of class agency that may affect the chances of democracy, implemented governmental and electoral system, the dominant economic system, also the usage of devolved regional government in analyzing the case of democracy consolidation as these aspects are found to be prominent and have greatly influenced the political dynamics of Ethiopia throughout the discussion below.
Although the history of Ethiopia can be traced back thousands of years, the country’s development as a political entity began in the nineteenth century. Ethiopia has been historically ruled under a feudal monarchy, which was relatively managed under an immensely decentralized government as the real power in the empire truly falls to regional lords rather than the emperor (Van der Beken, 2007). Under these circumstances, it can be understood that Ethiopia was once developed under a proto-devolved governmental system. As Beetham (1994) argued, the delegation of regional management under a localized administration would have compensated for those low power within the central administration. However, at the turn of the nineteenth century, Ethiopia gained new territorial possessions and victory against the Italians’ early attempts at colonial ambition. With new cultures and ethnicities incorporated into the empire, friction among communities became more prominent (Van der Beken, 2007).
As one of the few indigenous African states left after the Scramble for Africa, Ethiopia has taken opportunities to expand and maintain its sovereignty among its European counterparts, gradually learning their state-management methods and recognition. Like its European neighbors, Ethiopia is a multi-ethnic country with various linguistic and religious differences. The nineteenth century began Ethiopia’s ethnic tension as unequal treatment became commonly practiced towards their newly conquered subjects. Engrained within the long-preserved belief among Ethiopians who see themselves to be more Semitic than Africans has led to the supremacist tendency toward their neighboring and conquered ethnic communities. The reign of Emperor Menelik II brought an early end to the decentralized governance and a beginning toward an Amhara-ethnic dominance in the country. In addition, Although the seeds of antagonistic relationships between ethnic lines began during Menelik II’s reign, the eventual dissolution of Ethiopia’s proto-devolve governance under regional lords would not truly be accomplished until the reign of Haile Selassie through the promulgation of the 1931 Constitution, which aims to reduce the fragmentation of power and to transfer all powers to the emperor (Bulcha, 1997; Jalata, 2019; Van der Beken, 2007).
The imposition of one ethnic dominance over a multi-ethnic society, including the later federalization and annexation of Eritrea after the Second World War, along with the centralization of power under a single emperor over all matters of state, adding in with the growing disparity between the feudal upper classes with those below them, promulgated into the eventual communist military coup in 1974 and the overthrow of the monarchical system in the country (Biziouras, 2013; Van der Beken, 2007). Nevertheless, despite the governmental transition, democratization efforts remained hampered under the new Marxist regime. Although its ethnic supremacist stances may have been temporarily put at rest, the conduct of repressive governance has continued under the new communist military regime. An empire once built under the creation of mythical backstory and religion was soon replaced by direct military suppression and ideological whip (Jalata, 2019). Ethiopia remained relatively poor and underdeveloped, with over 50 million people living in it, comprised of 70 different ethnic groups and various religious groups, being put under a one-party communist system.
Like its predecessor, Mengistu’s communist regime would also be overthrown by the same ethnic-based rebel groups that have its discontentment against the imperial government that had come before, putting an end to the People’s Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the eventual rise of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition (Mennasemay, 2008). Taking on a new method of approach to solidifying its control over the country, the new alliance promised a permanent democratic change through the adoption of the provisional charter in July 1991, which was made in a peace conference between the EPRDF and more than twenty ethnic-based organizations and political groups that had participated in the revolution. The charter would give birth to the transitional government of Ethiopia, with the country’s leadership falling upon the EPRDF and the eventual formation of the current ongoing Ethiopian government. The new government has also given Eritrea the right to self-determination, leading to its eventual independence that same year (Engedayehu, 1993).
With most of Ethiopia’s modern history being laid out, there is much to be analyzed in measuring how truly consolidated is Ethiopia’s democracy. An interesting comment by Engedayehu (1993) sees how Ethiopia has been traditionally authoritarian, economically underdeveloped, politically unstable, and ethnically diverse, possessing neither the necessary democratic traditions nor economic prosperity. Although the practice of modern democracy has not been commonly conducted until the post-Mengistu period, the communities of Ethiopia have adopted an early step toward democracy consolidation; this includes decentralized governance in its early formation, as discussed previously. The eventual overthrowing of both Selassie’s and Mengistu’s regimes, which had attempted to shift the governmental system to a more centralized one, has shown how the engrained class agency has become over the period and the growing consciousness for the increase of autonomy and democratization.
Nevertheless, the country has been unable to maintain stable governance over the years. This condition is shown by the considerable amount of political crisis and armed revolutions throughout the period, including the succession crisis of 1916, the overthrowing of the monarchy in 1974, the growing numbers of ethnic revolts over the twentieth century, and the more recent revolution of 1991 (Beetham, 1994; Bizouras, 2013; Van den Beken, 2007). As Beetham (1994) argued, the process of transition to democracy in itself tends to influence the stability of the eventual democracy implemented. For instance, the military coup of 1974 plunged Ethiopia into another authoritarian regime rather than leading to a proper democracy consolidation. It was not until an effort for democratization was paid through the price of another armed revolution in 1991. Even so, looking at the current state of Ethiopia, it can be considered that the armed insurgency in itself has indeed hampered the stability of Ethiopian democracy, as seen from the events taking place in recent years.
While the transitional government has led Ethiopia to form a multi-party democracy based on ethnic federalism in the hope of accommodating ethnic aspirations that have been suppressed throughout Ethiopian history and increasing hope for national unity through ethnic autonomy, many problems need to be solved in keeping their democracy in shape (Engedayehu, 1993). Even with the decision to delegate much of the power to the local governments, Mennasemay (2008) sees several issues in implementing the new governmental system. It is argued that the ethnic federation has caused the further fragmentation of Ethiopia. Furthermore, the ruling party of EPRDF, led by Meles Zenawi, has not fulfilled its promises of democratic transition. A series of elections in 1995, 2000, and 2005 were conducted, with the majority remaining under the control of the EPRDF. In addition, while post-1991 Ethiopia saw an increase in political institutions and a growing public ethos for democracy, the process remained within a tight grip of the EPRDF. Instead, the maintenance of legitimacy was answered through collusion and nepotism, creating a network of loyalists and trusted people holding significant political and economic power (Abbink, 2006). Despite the party’s victories over the years, it was certain that it did not dampen the growing crisis. The 2005 general election crisis erupted as a consequence, and as a response, the government imprisoned its oppositions, cracking down on pro-democracy militants, students, the press, and human rights activists (Mennasemay, 2008).
The aforementioned case has shown many issues in the Ethiopian democracy. While attempts to increase political participation (e.g., multi-party system, ethno-federal system) were made in this new government, remnants of authoritarian practices, including the clamping down of opposition, have continued to drag down the consolidation process. In taking Jalata’s (2019) bleak depiction of modern Ethiopia, despite its new democratic form, Ethiopia has remained an empire of darkness and ignorance which failed to deliver its responsibilities as a modern state. The state has become an apparatus to enrich its elites and a means for maintaining public compliance through acts of state terrorism and repression. In addition, the hampering of democracy consolidation also falls to the conduct of economic cronyism among Ethiopian elites. It is a complex debate regarding what monetary policy would have worked best for Ethiopia. While a market economy would have helped in breaking down the paternalist thrust and led to consumer sovereignty as much as voter sovereignty, the existing wealth inequality of Ethiopia may as well put Ethiopians in a vulnerable position and may lead to the very authoritarianism that it hopes to take down (Beetham, 1994). However, it can also be argued that a proper market economy was not being practiced in the first place. Referring back to the previous regimes, the practices of a state-controlled economy under the Marxist government and the prevailing feudal system during the imperial period have prevented a market economy from being conducted, leading to the continuing practice of economic cronyism and the prevalence of political nepotism in the country.
To further add to the analysis, the case of the Tigray War in itself becomes the culmination of these issues surrounding Ethiopian democracy. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a once-prominent faction within the EPRDF coalition, fell out of grace after the ethnically Tigray prime minister and party leader Meles Zenawi died in 2012. His successor, Hailemariam Desalegn, resigned in 2018 after growing political tension among the Oromo and Amhara communities, which led to the rise of the incumbent prime minister Abiy Ahmed, a mixed Amhara-Oromo descent. His rise was swiftly used to roll out various decisions previously made by the TPLF and take out their dominance in important power positions (Burke, 2020). The postponement of the 2020 general election, under the reasoning of the COVID-19 pandemic, allowed the TPLF to go against the federal government and consider Abiy Ahmed an illegitimate leader. This action was later countered through the illegalization of the 2020 Tigray regional election and the revocation of President Debretsion Gebremichael’s prosecution immunity (Aljazeera, 2020). The souring relations and the increasing tension between the two governments culminated in the eventual Tigray War.
Examining the circumstances above through Beetham’s hypotheses (1994), it is a certainty that years of antagonistic relationships between Ethiopian ethnicities have come to haunt the new government. The issues that have caused its reoccurrence can be connected to the method by which the Ethiopian electoral system is conducted. To this day, the Ethiopian house of representatives is adopting the first-past-the-post voting system, making a majoritarian rule a commonality. Although the decision to adopt the parliamentary system has indeed increased the flexibility of those who would take charge as head of state, as shown above, the majoritarian rule creates a relatively one-party control over all state affairs at a time, making political concessions unnecessary. Moreover, the adopted ethno-federal system has caused the breakdown of the Ethiopian democratic system with the break out of the war. As Beetham (1994) mentioned, the losers of the electoral contest can now take their bat home once they find that there is too much at stake in defeat. In this case, the roll-out of TPLF policies and members, added with the direct intervention of the federal government in illegalizing the 2020 Tigray regional election, further increased the desperation of the Tigrays, ultimately leading to the declaration of war from President Gebremichael.
Through the examination of Ethiopia’s political history and the recent events surrounding the Tigray War, it can be said that there has been immense progress in the institutionalization of democracy in the country. Compared to the imperial period, there have been many transformations in the hope of establishing more inclusive governance and a stable democratic system. However, as mentioned previously, there is still a constant distrust among ethnic groups deeply ingrained in the country, which has endangered the very future of Ethiopia’s existence. It is an unfortunate situation that can be argued for most African countries. As Ekeh (1975) would say, there is a commonality for most educated Africans to feel like a citizen of two publics (i.e., primordial and civic) in the same society, with both compelling one to two different identities and interests that continuously contradicts each other. Although Ethiopia would be considered a genuinely African country to a certain degree compared to its European decolonized neighbors, its adoption of colonialism through its imperial territorial expansion and its strong tendency to consider itself superior to those it conquered has led to a similar societal condition (Jalata, 2019).
While the hunger for democracy seems to have existed among Ethiopians, the continuous hauntings of ethnic distrust and supremacism have led to a series of domino effects that further plunges both Ethiopia’s democracy and the country itself into a near collapse; this includes the ongoing prevalence of violence, corruption, patronage politics, and even economic disparity. While Ethiopia’s current democratic system has existed for over thirty years, it is unfortunate that much is needed to fix the country’s current state. As Jalata (2019) argues, years of state-building of one ethnonational hegemony within a multi-ethnic empire without providing the recognition for rights of their subjugated peoples has come at the cost of Ethiopia’s decay, failure, and underdevelopment. It is only through decolonization, national self-determination, the abandonment of ethno-supremacist consciousness, and popular sovereignty that Ethiopia can finally earn its remedy in gaining the internal political legitimacy it direly needs before suffering the eventual consequences of a possible genocidal war.
The consolidation of democracy will need more time and effort to develop in Ethiopia. Through the hypotheses in measuring the consolidation of democracy, it can be said that Ethiopia has plenty of issues that have hampered the process. As remnants of authoritarianism still plague the country’s methods of governing, the prevalence of trans-ethnic antagonism, and regional infighting that has threatened the stability and belief of the democratic system, there is much to fix to bolster the consolidation process. Its years of ethno-authoritarian rule have come at a heavy toll on the country and its democracy’s longevity. While efforts for democratization have begun, the country’s ethnic frictions have continued to create a destructive domino effect that plagues the very process of possible democracy consolidation and its existence. The recent eruption of the Tigray War could be the beginning of a more excellent reckoning for the unfinished democratization process of Ethiopia. It may lead to more ethnic violence in the future. With that said, analyzing events that led to the Tigray War, it can be concluded that democracy has not truly consolidated in Ethiopia.
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